UFC 105 Betting Odds and Analysis

Randy Couture (-103, 5Dimes) vs Brandon Vera (-105, Bodog)

For the first time since retiring from the ring after his loss to Chuck Liddell in 2006, Randy Couture is venturing back into the light heavy weight division after back-to-back losses at heavy weight.  And he is being welcomed back to the division by Brandon Vera, the man once believed to be the future of the heavyweight division.  It is a very ironic world we live in.

Even though Couture has been dealing with questions about his age since he started fighting, it is really starting to become an issue now.  His last fight with Big Nog showed some serious problems with his speed and reaction time.  As such, Nog was able to knock him down several times.  Now he is dropping down to fight a very fast Muay Thai fighter in Brandon Vera.  It will not bode well for him.  His only path to victory will be to work his clinch game (his bread and butter) and use his wrestling to get in some GnP.

That being said, Brandon Vera is no slouch in the clinch or on the ground.  He has a wrestling background like Couture, and he should be able to hold his own to stuff Couture’s takedowns.  Plus, his Muay Thai should give him the ability to do some damage in the clinch and not just get battered like many of Couture’s past opponents.  If he does get taken down, he has some very dangerous BJJ.

The most likely scenario in this fight is Vera catching Couture on the feet, just like Big Nog did.  However, this time, Vera should be able to finish it off with either a KO or TKO.  Stylistically, this is simply a bad matchup for Randy.  This is really Vera’s fight to lose.

Final Prediction: Take Brandon Vera at -105 for 3 units to win 2.85 units.

Mike Swick (-225, 5Dimes) vs Dan Hardy (+190, BetCRIS)

This fight is suppose to be for the top contender position in the welterweight division.  It was originally suppose to be Swick and Kampmann at UFC 103, but Swick got hurt in training, Daley stepped up, knocked out Kampmann, and now Swick is fighting Hardy here at UFC 105.  This fight was originally suppose to be Dong-Hyun Kim and Hardy, but Kim dropped out due to injuries and Swick stepped in.  This fight history is just littered with injuries.

How Dan Hardy can be up for a title shot after this is a little suspect.  He has only gone 3-0 with 2 of his victories coming via very close split decision.  Mike Swick on the other hand, has gone 8-1 in the UFC with his only loss to Yushin Okami at middleweight.

Style wise, Swick beats Hardy pretty much everywhere.  He has much faster striking, way better wrestling, and should be the larger fighter.  This fight will most likely not go to the ground, and if it does, Swick will be on top battering Hardy.  There is a chance for Hardy to connect with a lucky punch, but Swick will probably dominate the whole fight.

Final Prediction: Take Mike Swick at -225 for 2 units to win .88 units.  This line has moved pretty high up since it first came out, so the value has eroded a bit.  However, Swick is still worth a play.

Michael Bisping (+112, 5Dimes) vs Denis Kang (-122, 5Dimes)

There are a lot of unknowns with this fight.  Bisping is coming off a devastating KO loss to Dan Henderson.  However, he is in England, so he has the home town advantage.  Kang has been a bit inconsistent since his arrival to the UFC, but was a real force to reckoned with while over in Japan fighting.

Standing up, Kang should have the edge.  However, just because Bisping made a mistake and circled in Henderson’s power hand, does not make him a slouch in the standup.  He is very good at keeping his distance and battering his opponents from afar, like he did to Chris Leben.  Kang is better at counter-striking and working his combinations.  Therefore, it should be an interesting to see who can impose their will the best.

Wrestling wise, Kang has the advantage.  He has great takedowns that he throws with impeccable timing.  Bisping has good takedown defense, but there is a high probability that Kang will be able to get him down at some point.

On the ground, Kang has the edge.  He has won a 15 of his 32 fights by submission.  On the other hand, Bisping has never been submitted.  Therefore, the most likely scenario is that Kang will use his BJJ to keep top control and score points with the judges.  He may throw a few submission attempts in there, but it is unlikely that he will sink any of them in.

This fight is the most likely fight to go to a decision.  If it does, look to Kang to pull off the win.  However, also be aware that this fight is in England, and there can be some crazy scoring there when it comes to the hometown fighters.

Final Predication: Take no action.  There is no telling if Bisping is going to show up gun-shy or not.  The hometown judges add more volatility, and Kang has been inconsistent in the past.  If the gambling bug has bit you and you have to take action, the smart bet would be on Kang, just don’t go overboard.

James Wilks (+138, BetCRIS) vs Matt Brown (-155, 5Dimes)

James Wilks looked great during TUF.  Matt Brown looked absolutely incredible in his victory over Pete Sell.  Wilks has the better BJJ, and Brown has the much better standup and wrestling.  Therefore, it is unlikely that Wilks will be able to get this fight to the ground to work his BJJ.  Instead, he is going to get battered on the feet.

Final Prediction: Take Matt Brown at -155 for .5 units to win .32 units.

WEF Disclaimer:  This article is opinion only.  Gamble at your own risk.

Dr. Steroids

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