“Whoever wins the next point will be our new champion.”
To commemorate this Saturday’s monumental event; UFC 100, I am paying tribute to one of the greatest movies of all time, “The Karate Kid”, by infusing some of the movies quotes into my predictions.
-”Point! Jab! That’s two for MiRusso” Frank Mir (12-3) vs. “Points or no points……you’re dead meat” Brock Lesnar (3-1)
Frank Mir is a cocky SOB but he’s also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard. He’s light years ahead of Brock in the MMA game and has “resurrected” his career after beating Lesnar and knocking out a staph infected Nogueria. However this so called “resurrection” comes on the heels of horrible loses to Marcio Cruz, Brandon Vera, and a very lack-luster win over Dan Christison. It’s hard to believe this is will be only Brock Lesnar’s fifth MMA fight and yet he is favored over Frank Mir heading into UFC 100. Why? Just look at his fight against Heath Herring and watch how he was able to stay composed against the legend Randy Couture and win the UFC heavyweight belt.
Who Wins: If Frank Mir can stick and move and use his jab effectively and take the fight into the later rounds of the match Mir walks away with his second win over Brock. He won’t. I see Brock Lesnar hurting Mir during an exchange on their feet and then does what he should have done in their first meeting…finish him via ground n pound in the 1st round.
-”Warning for illegal contact to the knee” Georges St. Pierre (18-2) vs. “ComeOn Thiago , you can do it”! Alves (15-3)
Let me preface this by saying I am not a GSP fan. I do believe his corner intentionally greased him up and I do not buy into the fact he has the mental toughness to run through the welterweight division. That being said, he is a physical specimen and currently sits atop the 170lb weight class. When he is on, he can strike with the best of them, as well conditioned as any fighter, and probably has the best wrestling skills in the game. If there’s anyone who can dethrone Dana’s golden boy it is Thiago Alves. Alves is a big guy and is currently riding a seven fight win streak and has won via KO or TKO in five of them. He might fight at 170 but by the time that octagon door closes Thiago Alves is a legitimate light heavyweight. His muay thai kicks are devastating and has brutal punching power. If he has one flaw it’s his submission game, having only 1 in 16 of his wins.
Who Wins: In watching Georges fight against Josh Koscheck, GSP demonstrated how good of a natural athlete he is and he out wrestled a wrestler. I don’t ever recall Koscheck ever being rocked during that fight. Thiago Alves OWNED Josh Koscheck. He hit and hit him hard. It was such an impressive victory where I was left wondering and admiring how Kos lasted the full three rounds. Alves kills the GSP mystique in a Round 1 shocker. That’s my pick and I’m sticking to it.
-”You proved a point”. “What that I can take a beating?” Jon Fitch (18-3) vs. “Breathe in, breathe out”. Paulo Thiago (11-0)
I feel bad for Jon Fitch. He won 15 fights in a row, 8 of them in the octagon and all anyone can talk about is how he took a beating for five rounds at the hands of GSP. “He showed heart” is the common theme when talking about that title bout. How was he rewarded for showing the ability to take a beating for 25 minutes? He was relegated to the preliminaries against Akihiro Gono in a untelevised fight. He won by grinding out
another unanimous decision and lived up to his “blue collar” style of winning. The win was enough to get
him back on the main card of one of the most historic UFC cards ever….or until UFC 150 comes around.
Paulo Thiago…Who? I’m not going to sit here and act like I know much about this guy. He showed some serious knockout power when he downed Josh Koscheck. Other than that all I know is what the Sherdog fight finder tells me. He’s won the majority of his fights by submission and is undefeated. In his only UFC fight he did show the ability to stay calm despite being overwhelmed at times by the more experienced fight in Josh Koscheck.
Who Wins: The only shot Paulo Thiago has to win is if Fitch gets careless and gets caught. Surprise, surprise, Fitch wins this by yet another unanimous decision and starts his road back to another title shot.
-”Win, lose, no matter” Dan Henderson (24-7) vs. ” You’re a cream puff!” Michael Bisping (18-1)
It’s safe to say no matter what the outcome of this fight Dan Henderson’s legacy is cemented. He’s an Olympic wrestler who’s never been knocked out and has fought a who’s who of fighters. He was also the first man to simultaneously hold two belts in two different weight classes during his run in Pride . Despite having split his last four fights he is coming of a split decision win over Rich Franklin. At 38yrs of age he shows no sign of slowing down and is looking for one more shot at Anderson Silva before sailing into the sunset.
What’s there to like about Bisping? He’s an arrogant, tantrum throwing, mediocre fighter who’s been blessed to have fallen into the good graces of Dana White. I really don’t have anything else to say on him other than he’s a cream puff….
Who Wins: Dan Henderson will win this. Whether it is by knockout or a 3 round ground and pound session there is no way Dan Henderson loses this fight unless Bisping stuffs his gloves with bricks. Henderson beat Rich Franklin who beat Matt Hamil who owned Bisping for three rounds despite what the blind judges scored it. How Michael Bisping can say Henderson will not take him down during the fight and keep a straight face is beyond me.
–“Miyagi-do Karate” Yoshihiro Akiyama (12-1) vs. “If do right, no can defense”. Alan Belcher (14-5)
People in attendance at the all valley tournament might not have known what Miyagi-do Karate was, but by the end of the tournament they sure as hell would never forget. The same could be said regarding the K-1 and Dream veteran Yoshihiro Akiyama. The former Judoka champion comes into the UFC highly regarded and considered a top 10 middleweight.
Alan Belcher has impressed in each of his UFC victories and despite of his 5-3 records inside the octagon he’s shown glimpses of being a breakout contender in the 185lb division. When he’s on top of his game he is hard to beat and an impressive win over Akiyama could launch him a win or two away from a title shot.
Who Wins: Is it just me or does every “highly regarded” fighter coming out of Japan seem to fizzle in the UFC? Maybe it’s the inability to adapt from a ring to cage or the fact the level of competition just isn’t the same in the land of the Red Sun. I’m taking Belcher winning this fight in the 3rd round via TKO.