Mark Coleman vs Stephan Bonnar Betting Analysis, UFC 100

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Mark Coleman vs Stephan Bonnar Betting Analysis, UFC 100

Mark Coleman (+300, BetCRIS) vs Stephan Bonnar (-325, Sportsbook)

The granddaddy of GnP is taking on one of the poster boys that put the UFC on the map in this very interesting matchup.

Let’s start with Mark Coleman.  Mark was one of the pioneers in the sport and fought in the UFC for the first time at the UFC 10 tournament.  He went on to win both the UFC 10 and 11 tournaments and become the heavyweight champion at UFC 12 by defeated Dan Severn.  He then had a string of losses to Maurice Smith, Pete Williams, and Pedro Rizzo.  From there he went over to Pride and won the 2000 Pride Openweight GP.  Numerous battles followed with mix results.  He beat Allan Goes, lost to Big Nog, beat Don Fry, and loss to Fedor Emelianenko and Cro Cop.  He then beat Milco Voorn and had a strange win over Mauricio Rua by way of a nasty broken arm.  He then lost again to Fedor and then stayed out of the fight game for several years until his return this year to the UFC and subsequent loss Rua at UFC 93.

He did fairly well in his fight against Shogun, especially since Coleman said that he trained alone for that fight and didn’t have anyone helping him.  He ended up completely exhausted by the second round, but so was Rua.  He even had Rua in some precarious situations and showed some descent striking abilities, seeming to tag Shogun at will on the feet.

Of course, Coleman’s main strength is his wrestling.  He practically pioneered the modern ground and pound technique and has “The Hammer” as a nickname for a good reason.  His greatest weakness would probably be his age and cardio.  He has shown to fade in the later rounds and fallen prey to several fighters that were able to outlast him.

Where Mark Coleman has a propensity to fade, Stephen Bonnar tends to get stronger as he goes.  He has been in some nasty wars and even though he was recently defeated by Jon Jones, he did start looking much better in the last round of that fight.  He was still dominated, but not as much as the earlier rounds.  Bonnar comes from a BJJ background and trained under Carlson Gracie.  This is evident in the fact that out of 11 victories, 7 came via submission.  He is also a two time Chicago Golden Gloves boxing title holder and has done quite a bit of Muay Thai training in Thailand and with Mark Dellagrotte.  He is one of the few fighters to have trained out of Floyd Mayweather’s boxing gym in Vegas, and is currently training out of the TapOut gym due to Coleman coming to Extreme Couture for his fight training.  So we know he has good standup.

The chinks in Bonnar’s have been mainly his ability to be overwhelmed by wrestlers or out-scrapped (by Forrest Griffen).  Forrest Griffen kept their fights on the feet and was able to out kickbox Bonnar.  Jon Jone was able to overwhelm him in the first two rounds and really throw him around with Greco-Roman takedowns.  He also lost to another strong wrestler in the form of Rashad Evans.  So we have seen that he can be beat by good wrestlers, so that makes me pause on this fight.  On the other hand, he has great submission skills and Coleman has been submitted and put in danger various times in his career.  Four out of his nine career losses came via submission.

On the standup side, Bonnar definetly has the advantage.  In addition to his boxing and Muay Thai skills, he will also have a 3” height advantage and a 4” reach advantage.  So it would probably be unwise for Coleman to try and stand with Bonnar.

With Coleman’s age and potential cardio factors, coupled with him actually training with a team for this fight, there are very many unknown variables in this matchup.  More are added with Stephan Bonnar’s trouble with wrestlers in the past and his good submission skills.  If Coleman can take Bonnar down in the first round and get the TKO via GnP, it will be his night.  If he is unable to in the first round, Bonnar’s chances of winning keep increasing as time goes on.  If this fight goes the distance, Bonnar should be on the side of a unanimous decision win.  As such, I see a little bit of value on the Coleman line.  He should definitely be the underdog, but I would give him better odds than what are currently being given.  He has a descent chance of overwhelming Bonnar in round 1 and getting the TKO stoppage.

Final Prediction: A risky bet on Mark Coleman at +300 risking .5 units to win 1.5 units.  This is a high risk bet.

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